Toward scalable natural hydrogen exploration strategy: Aligning market with subsurface realities
PresentationTools
2025-11-13 | 02:00 PM - 02:15 PM | Main Stage
Abstract
The exploration of natural hydrogen (H₂) faces a dual challenge: geological uncertainty and the lack of a scalable economic model. In this work, we adopt a reverse-engineered approach rooted in Mantle8’s methodology – starting from plausible early-stage commercial scenarios to define a diversified portfolio of exploration targets and associated de-risking strategies.
We begin by establishing the boundary conditions for near-term economic viability. These including the nature of the resource (e.g. minimum flow rates, purity thresholds), proximity to infrastructure, regulatory context and potential offtake agreements. From these commercial constraints, we work backwards to identify the critical business parameters anchored [MD1] into a rigorous, science-based geological “trifecta”as proving:
- high-quality, volumetrically significant H₂ kitchen,
- active generation and measurable fluxes,
- a dynamic reservoir system with effective charging and sealing mechanisms,
We then examine how dedicated geoscience, and innovative scientific workflows can help reduce key uncertainties. This includes integrating both legacy and new datasets into simulation frameworks, which can in turn fuel Machine Learning enhanced exploration strategies. Special emphasis is place on the use of integrated geoscience-to-business models to estimate expected value at the “H2 play” level, well before individual drilling decisions are made — supporting the rational build-up of an exploration portfolio.
Our approach seeks to focus most efforts (and investment) where geological potential and economic viability are best aligned. Ultimately, the scalability of natural hydrogen exploration will rely less on standalone probabilistic resource estimates, and more on the repeatability of viable “H₂ plays” across a diversified portfolio. We therefore advocate for a scalable logic inspired by early unconventional O&G exploration: one that maps and de-risks geological trifectas compatible with low-CAPEX, short-payback, and rapidly testable projects.
[MD1]grounded ?
Authors: Emmanuel Masini¹, Mantle8 Team¹
¹Mantle8 SAS, HQ, 6 rue de Chamechaude 38360 Sassenage, France
